'Canes and 'Noles duke it out in ACC action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A battle of Sunshine State foes in the ACC takes place in Tallahassee this afternoon, as the Miami-Florida Hurricanes do battle with the 15th-ranked Florida State Seminoles.

Miami comes in seeking its sixth straight win, as the team improved to 15-7 overall and 6-3 in conference after claiming a 65-49 triumph over visiting Virginia Tech on Thursday night. The Hurricanes have won their last three road bouts as well, the most recent of which being a 78-74 overtime triumph at Duke last Sunday.

Florida State recently had a seven-game win streak stopped in a 64-60 loss at Boston College on Wednesday night, dropping the team to 16-7 overall and 7-2 in the ACC. The Seminoles are a near-perfect 12-1 at home this season, with their only setback at the Tucker Center coming in a triple-overtime affair against Princeton back on December 30.

FSU owns a 38-28 lead in the all-time series with Miami, and the 'Noles have won 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Reggie Johnson scored 15 points, Shane Larkin added 14 and Kenny Kadji chipped in 11 to lead Miami past Virginia Tech earlier this week in south Florida. The Hurricanes shot just 41.4 percent from the field, but held the Hokies to 35.2 percent, and the visitors were guilty of 17 turnovers as well. Miami claimed advantages in points in the paint (24-14) and bench points (19-13), and won the game despite being outrebounded (40-32). Through 22 games, the 'Canes are averaging a healthy 72.1 ppg on the strength of their 44.0 percent field goal efficiency, which includes a 35.9 percent showing from three-point range. Defensively, the team allows 66.9 ppg on typical shooting outputs of just 41.5 percent overall and 33.4 percent from beyond the arc. Miami is -0.6 in rebounding margin, but +1.0 in turnover differential. Durand Scott heads a balanced attack that has four players averaging between 12.0 and 12.6 ppg, with two of them (Johnson and Kadji) making good on better than 52 percent of their field goal attempts.

Florida State is outscoring the opposition by nearly 10 ppg for the season (71.0 ppg to 61.4 ppg), and the team is shooting 45.6 percent from the floor while limiting the enemy to 37.4 percent. Foes have also struggled with their long-range launches, hitting them just 29.3 percent of the time. The Seminoles boast just two double-digit scorers in Michael Snaer (13.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg) and James Bernard (10.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg), although Ian Miller is close to joining the ranks as he nets 9.8 ppg despite coming off the bench and only appearing in 12 bouts thus far. Snaer was high man once again for FSU in its recent clash with Boston College, hitting for 16 points despite a disappointing shooting night (6-of-18), while James and Miller contributed 12 points apiece in the losing effort. As a team, the Seminoles shot just 39.6 percent from the floor, missing 15 of their 20 three-point attempts along the way. BC had the same overall shooting percentage, but 10 of its 19 total field goals were of the three-point variety.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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